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The latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) figures show that speculators, especially leveraged funds, ramped up their short Treasuries positions in the week ending Oct. 31, most notably at the short end of the curve. That is significantly larger than the peak combined net short position from 2019 of just over 4 million contracts, boosted by fresh record short positions in the two- and five-year space. In October leveraged funds increased their net short position in two-year futures by 242,000 contracts to 1.6 million contracts, and by 193,000 contracts in five-year futures to 1.93 million. They only grew their net short position in 10-year futures by 10,000 contracts, however. But funds play Treasuries futures for other reasons, like relative value trades, and this year, the basis trade.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Javier Corominas, Treasuries, Jerome Powell, Jamie McGeever, Miral Fahmy, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Rights, Futures Trading Commission, Regulators, Reuters, Oxford Economics, Treasury, Citi's, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Rights ORLANDO , Florida, Citi's U.S

An electronic board shows stock indexes at the Lujiazui financial district in Shanghai, China, March 21, 2023. REUTERS/Aly Song/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 7 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. This is their best run in a year, powered by easing financial conditions in the form of lower U.S. bond yields and a weaker dollar, and renewed faith in the U.S. economic 'soft landing' scenario. Having under-performed global and developed market benchmarks last week, Asian stocks could be set to outperform this week. Skeptical foreign investors will need more than one month of slowing imports and exports decline though.

Persons: Aly, Jamie McGeever, Goldman Sachs, Deepa Babington Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of Korea, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Shanghai, China, U.S, India, Asia, Taiwan, Philippines, Indonesia, Japan, Australia

A man wearing a mask walks past the headquarters of the People's Bank of China, the central bank, in Beijing, China, February 3, 2020. The regional economic and policy events calendar this week is jammed with top-tier releases which are sure to give local assets strong steers, especially from China. China's economic surprises index turned positive three weeks ago but despite stronger-than-expected third quarter GDP growth, that momentum has faded. This week's 'data dump' will give a clearer picture of how the economy started the fourth quarter. Indonesia's quarter-on-quarter growth rate is expected to more than halve to 1.71% from 3.86%, according to a Reuters poll, and annual growth is expected to essentially hold steady just above 5%.

Persons: Jason Lee, Jamie McGeever, Josie Kao Organizations: People's Bank of China, REUTERS, Reserve Bank, Reuters, Bank of Korea, Bank of Japan, Nikkei, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, Asia, U.S, Thailand, Philippines, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Indonesian, Japan

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a meeting of the Economic Club of New York in New York City, U.S., October 19, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 2 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. The MSCI World equity index rose just over 1%, its best day since August while the Nasdaq jumped 1.6%, its fourth rise in a row, for its best day since August too. Malaysia's central bank is expected to keep its key interest rate at 3% and through 2024, despite a weakening ringgit, amid stable domestic inflation and a steady growth outlook. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Brendan McDermid, Jamie McGeever, Wall, Jerome Powell's, Powell, Evergrande, Josie Kao Organizations: Economic, of New, REUTERS, Treasury, Bank of, Nikkei, Nasdaq, South, South Korea CPI, Thomson, Reuters Locations: of New York, New York City, U.S, Malaysian, Asia, Hong Kong, South Korea, July's, Malaysia, Australia

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda attends a press conference after its policy meeting in Tokyo, Japan October 31, 2023, in this photo taken by Kyodo. In addition, interest rate changes were asymmetric — Fed rate hikes following stock market recoveries were usually muted compared with the initial cuts. This was an explicit, open-ended policy to hold the currency at a set level and flood the Swiss economy and markets with oceans of liquidity, but essentially still a central bank put. As Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex points out, it is financial stability that is ultimately - and rightly - at the heart of the so-called central bank put. "There is a perception or myth that has built up around the central bank put.

Persons: Kazuo Ueda, Alan Greenspan, Louis, William Poole, Greenspan, Steven Englander, Marc Chandler, Chandler, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Japan, Kyodo, REUTERS Acquire, Rights, Bank of Japan, Federal Reserve, Louis Fed, Swiss National Bank, Standard Chartered, National Bureau of Economic Research, Swiss, Reuters, Bannockburn Global, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Rights ORLANDO , Florida, New York, Switzerland, Swiss, Bannockburn

REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 1 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. But Asian markets' first chance to react to that will be Thursday. But if the yuan is under pressure, it is nothing compared to the onslaught Japan's yen is facing. The currency and bond market reactions to the BOJ's policy tweak could not have been more different - the yen fell the most since April, while Japanese bond yields surged to a fresh decade-high. World, U.S. and Asian stocks all fell for a third month in a row, bond yields surged and financial conditions tightened significantly.

Persons: Kim Kyung, Jamie McGeever, China's Organizations: National Printing Bureau, Bank of Japan, REUTERS, U.S . Federal, U.S, Treasury, PMI, Tuesday, China PMI, Indonesia CPI, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Asia, India, South Korea, Indonesia, Korean, Hong Kong, China

People walk in front of the bank of Japan building in Tokyo, Japan, April 7, 2023. REUTERS/Androniki Christodoulou/ File photo Acquire Licensing RightsOct 31 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. Will the BOJ spook markets on Halloween and the final trading day of the month by effectively tightening monetary policy further with another tweak to its 'yield curve control' policy? Inflation in Japan has finally taken off, and for the first time in decades, appears to be sticking well above 2%. Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Tuesday:- Bank of Japan policy decision- China PMIs (October)- Japan unemployment, industrial production, retail sales (September)By Jamie McGeever;Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Androniki, Jamie McGeever, Will, Government Bonds, China PMIs Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of, U.S . Federal, Bank of England, Nikkei, Japan, Government, PMI, Bank of Japan, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Japan, Tokyo, Hong Kong, Taiwan, China

Passersby walk past an electric monitor displaying the Japanese yen exchange rate against the U.S. dollar outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan October 4, 2023. REUTERS/Issei Kato/File photo Acquire Licensing RightsOct 30 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. Asian markets on Monday will also give their initial reaction to news over the weekend of an expected U.S.-Sino summit between presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping next month. But the MSCI emerging market index and Asia ex-Japan index's falls of around 0.6% last week were notably shallower than the MSCI Work index's 2% slide. China's recent economic and market signals, at least, are brightening a little.

Persons: Issei Kato, Jamie McGeever, Joe Biden, Xi Jinping, Japan index's, Bond, JGBs, Diane Craft Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Tech, Investors, Tuesday's Bank of Japan, Bank of, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Malaysia, Asia, South Korea, Indonesia, Vietnam, Taiwan, Hong Kong, U.S, Australia, Bank of Japan, Germany

Reuters Image Acquire Licensing RightsAnd that is reflected in the return of the "term premium," the amorphous amount of compensation investors demand for buying long-dated bonds instead of rolling over bills. A San Francisco Fed model estimates that the term premium on the 10-year Treasury bond has risen around 100 basis points since July. Reuters Image Acquire Licensing RightsAnalysts at Morgan Stanley reckon the term premium and debt sustainability worries could prompt a rethink of the bill-coupon supply balance. Bill supply around these levels would be well down on net issuance of just over $1.6 trillion in fiscal year 2023. Reuters Image Acquire Licensing RightsReuters Image Acquire Licensing RightsIn an ideal world, Treasury would not choose to rely on such short-term funding needs.

Persons: Kevin Lamarque, Morgan Stanley, Bill, Committee's, Jamie McGeever, Marguerita Choy Organizations: Department of, U.S . Treasury, REUTERS, Rights, U.S, Treasury, San, San Francisco Fed, New York Fed, Bank of America, TD Securities, Bills, Reuters, Securities, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Rights ORLANDO , Florida, San Francisco

Japanese national flag is hoisted atop the headquarters of Bank of Japan in Tokyo, Japan September 20, 2023. REUTERS/Issei Kato/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsOct 27 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. This is the backdrop to Friday's open in Asia, where Japanese economic data, bonds, and currency will again be under intense scrutiny ahead of next week's Bank of Japan policy meeting. The main data release in Asia on Friday will be consumer price inflation in Tokyo for September. In China, meanwhile, industrial sector profit figures for the first nine months of the year are on the docket Friday.

Persons: Issei Kato, Jamie McGeever, JP Morgan, Fumio Kishida, Marguerita Choy Organizations: Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Nasdaq, week's Bank of Japan, Reuters, Barclays, UBS, Japanese, China's, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Asia, China, YTD, Australia

After 525 basis points of interest rate hikes, financial conditions are now the tightest in a year, and biting. JPMorgan strategists estimate that the impact on GDP from tightening financial conditions takes anywhere from one to two years to be felt. Reuters Image Acquire Licensing RightsReuters Image Acquire Licensing RightsThe renewed weakness of U.S. regional bank shares is one of them. Reuters Image Acquire Licensing RightsReuters Image Acquire Licensing RightsBNP Paribas analysts reckon the impact on GDP growth from tighter financial conditions recently equates to a 40 basis point rate hike. Around a third of the bank's financial conditions index rise since April is from higher bond yields.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Goldman Sachs, Torsten Slok, Morgan Stanley, Jerome Powell, Jamie McGeever, Andrea Ricci Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Rights, Fed, Treasury, Wall, JPMorgan, National Federation of Independent, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Rights ORLANDO , Florida, October's

REUTERS/Issei Kato/File photo Acquire Licensing RightsOct 26 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. Asian markets on Thursday are set to open on the defensive, with sentiment battered by one of the biggest selloffs of the year in U.S. tech stocks and a renewed spike in longer-dated U.S. Treasury bond yields the day before. The fog of uncertainty descended further over China's embattled property sector after it was reported on Wednesday that China's largest private lender Country Garden has defaulted on a U.S. dollar bond for the first time. But the broader tone in Asia on Thursday will be set by another decline in U.S. stocks and bonds. The global market moves represented a familiar pattern since the flare-up in Middle East violence nearly three weeks ago - higher bond yields, a 'bear steepening' of the U.S. yield curve, a stronger dollar, and higher oil and gold prices.

Persons: Issei Kato, Jamie McGeever, Michele Bullock's, Bullock, Josie Kao Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Treasury, Reserve Bank of Australia, Central Bank, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Singapore, Asia, East, Korean, Korea

Oct 25 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. Upbeat U.S. economic data often fuels Fed rate hike expectations, dragging stocks and other asset markets lower. In Asia on Wednesday, South Korea's LG Display is expected to show a fall in quarterly revenue when it reports results. On the economic data front, annual consumer inflation in Australia is expected to slow to 5.3% in the third quarter from 6.0% in the April-June period. The Australian dollar liked what it heard, bucked the global trend of widespread weakness against the U.S. dollar, and goes into the inflation data on the front foot around $0.6360.

Persons: Jamie McGeever, Michele Bullock, Lan Foan, Xi Jinping, Josie Kao Organizations: Microsoft, Google, South, LG, Apple, Reserve Bank of Australia, U.S ., South Korea LG, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, Asia, Australia, China, Beijing, South Korea

ORLANDO, Florida, Oct 22 (Reuters) - Leveraged funds trading U.S. Treasuries futures have increased their record net short position across the curve, which will do little to soothe growing concerns among regulators about the potential financial stability risks these bets pose. That is significantly larger than the peak combined net short position from 2019 of just over 4 million contracts. That's a whisker from the two-year record net short of 1.558 million contracts in 2019, and a fresh record five-year net short. A short position is essentially a wager an asset's price will fall, and a long position is a bet it will rise. But funds play Treasuries futures for other reasons, like relative value trades, and this year, the basis trade.

Persons: Jamie McGeever, Miral Organizations: Bank for International, Futures Trading Commission, U.S, Treasury, Reuters, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida, U.S

REUTERS/Issei Kato Acquire Licensing RightsOct 24 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. September's PMIs showed that manufacturing activity in Japan and Australia shrank and services sector activity grew, although growth in Japan was the slowest this year. The big picture, however, is still dominated by the ebb and flow of the U.S. Treasuries market. And while a broad easing of financial conditions on Monday - lower Treasury yields and a weaker dollar - should support emerging market assets, Wall Street's late downward drift will warrant caution. The MSCI Asia ex-Japan and MSCI global emerging market indexes are both down around 13% over the past three months and on Monday both hit their lowest level since Nov. 11 last year.

Persons: Issei Kato, Jamie McGeever, bode, Michele Bullock, September's PMIs, Wall, Goldman Sachs, outflows, Goldman, Josie Kao Organizations: REUTERS, Reserve Bank of Australia, Nasdaq, Bank of Japan, PMI, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Tokyo, Japan, U.S, Korean, Australia, Asia, China, South Korea

A man is reflected on an electric stock quotation board outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan April 18, 2023. REUTERS/Issei Kato Acquire Licensing RightsOct 23 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. The ICE BofA Treasuries index fell 1.4% last week, its biggest fall since May, and is at an eight-year low. Perhaps ominously, however, Friday's bond market relief didn't ease the pressure elsewhere - Wall Street's three main indices still closed 0.9%-1.5% lower. According to Goldman Sachs, financial conditions in emerging markets and globally are the tightest in almost a year.

Persons: Issei Kato, Jamie McGeever, Treasuries, That's, Goldman Sachs, Pan Gongsheng, September's, Diane Craft Organizations: REUTERS, ICE, Traders, Bank of Japan, Australian PMI, PMI, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Tokyo, Japan, U.S, South Korea, Australia, Singapore, Asia, China, Australian

If U.S. and Chinese growth holds up, the investment landscape will need to be redrawn too. Reuters Image Acquire Licensing RightsBut what if peak bond bearishness is already upon us? As Societe Generale's Albert Edwards points out, once the quarterly deflator is factored in, nominal GDP growth in the third quarter was actually only 3.5%. Reuters Image Acquire Licensing RightsEqually, U.S. stocks look expensive if high yields start to choke the economy. Reuters Image Acquire Licensing Rights(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.)

Persons: Florence Lo, Societe Generale's Albert Edwards, Chris Iggo, Jamie McGeever, Chizu Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Societe Generale's, World Bank, International Monetary Fund, of America's, HSBC, Reuters, AXA Investment, Bank of America's, Thomson Locations: Rights ORLANDO , Florida, United States, China, Atlanta, Beijing, Europe, U.S, Bank

A passerby walks past an electric monitor displaying recent movements of various stock prices outside a bank in Tokyo, Japan, March 22, 2023. The U.S. 10-year yield has shot up 35 basis points this week, on track for its biggest weekly rise in over a decade. The 2s/10s yield curve has steepened 27 basis points, which would be the biggest weekly steepening move since March. The 10-year yield rose as high as 4.996%, a level not seen since July 2007. On the economic data front, data are expected to show Japan's annual core inflation rate was 2.7% in September, cooling from 3.1% in August.

Persons: Issei KatoFile, Jamie McGeever, Kazuo Ueda, Jerome Powell, Ueda, Josie Kao Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of Japan, People's Bank of, Federal, Netflix, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Treasuries, Malaysia, Hong Kong, China, People's Bank of China, Asia, U.S, Hill, East

Oct 19 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. But the one-two combination of new multi-year highs for U.S. bond yields and a steep selloff on Wall Street looks set to deliver an early blow to Chinese and other markets across Asia on Thursday. As well as rising bond yields on Wednesday, Wall Street felt the heat from downbeat U.S. earnings. Stocks fell the most in two weeks, even though the message from Fed officials on the stump was that interest rate hikes are probably over. Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Thursday:- South Korea interest rate decision- Indonesia interest rate decision- Several Fed officials speak, including Chair Jerome PowellBy Jamie McGeever; Editing by Josie KaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Jamie McGeever, Stocks, Jerome Powell, Josie Kao Organizations: Treasury, Will, Bank of Japan, Government Bond, Bank of Korea, Bank Indonesia, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, Asia, South Korea, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Australia, Hong Kong, Korea

While the human tragedy dominates the broader global news agenda, its hold on global markets has typically loosened pretty quickly. Inflation-adjusted real rates matter more when deciding whether to hold gold. The 2014 Gaza War lasted about six weeks and saw Israeli forces cross the border into Gaza. The 2008-09 Gaza War also echoes today's situation and saw Israeli forces cross into Palestinian territory. And over the course of the 2014 Gaza War Brent crude fell around $10 to $93 a barrel.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Jim Reid, Brent, Michael Every, Jamie McGeever, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Barclays, Deutsche, Benchmark, Swiss, Rabobank, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Rights ORLANDO , Florida, Israel, Lebanon, Gaza

Oct 18 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. Wall Street closed flat to slightly lower on Tuesday, after forecast-busting U.S. retail sales data stoked expectations for another Fed rate hike by year-end and pushed Treasury bond yields sharply higher. Blame bumper U.S. retail sales, which also sparked a spree of upward revisions to U.S. growth forecasts. With nearly $11 billion of offshore bonds and $6 billion of offshore loans, a Country Garden default would tee up one of China's biggest corporate debt restructurings. Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Wednesday:- China GDP (Q3)- China retail sales, investment, unemployment, industrial production (September)- U.S. President Biden visit to IsraelBy Jamie McGeever; Editing by Josie KaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Jamie McGeever, chipmakers, Joe Biden's, Biden, Josie Kao Organizations: Wall Street, Bank of America, U.S, Wednesday, Atlanta, U.S ., Asia's, Thomson, Reuters Locations: China, Israeli, Gaza, Israel, U.S

REUTERS/Issei Kato/File photo Acquire Licensing RightsOct 17 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. Could stocks - and global risk appetite, by extension - be gaining a momentum of their own regardless of what the bond market does? Wall Street's main indexes and the benchmark MSCI indexes for world, Asian and emerging stocks are all higher since the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel. That said, investors in Asia should keep a close eye on the dollar, which is still trading up near 150.00 yen and over 7.30 yuan. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Issei Kato, Jamie McGeever, Wall, Fed's Williams, Bowman, Putin, Xi, Josie Kao Organizations: REUTERS, Reserve Bank of, U.S ., ICE, U.S, Treasury, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Asia, Israel, Australia, Beijing

People walk past the headquarters of the People's Bank of China (PBOC), the central bank, in Beijing, China September 28, 2018. REUTERS/Jason Lee/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsOct 15 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. But the most important day could be Wednesday when Chinese unemployment, industrial production, retail sales and business investment figures for September will be released, along with third-quarter GDP. The property sector's travails, threat of deflation, soaring youth unemployment, foreign outflows from Chinese stocks and bonds, and the exchange rate's slide to a 16-year low are well documented. The week ended with Asian stocks up 6%, their first rise in four weeks, and world stocks adding 4.5%, their best week in six.

Persons: Jason Lee, Jamie McGeever, biggie, Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, Putin, Stocks, Diane Craft Organizations: People's Bank of China, REUTERS, Reuters, Forum, Soviet Union, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, South Korea, Indonesia, Russian, Ukraine, U.S, Treasuries, Japan, India

People walk past the headquarters of the People's Bank of China (PBOC), the central bank, in Beijing, China September 28, 2018. Going by Wall Street's decline on Thursday, sparked by a spike in long-dated U.S. bond yields following a weak 30-year auction, the mood will be one of caution, at best. Annual producer price inflation has been negative for a year, although consumer inflation only briefly dipped below zero in July. On Thursday the yield curve flattened the most in a single day since March, a 'bull' flattening led by heavy buying of long-dated bonds. Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Friday:- China PPI and CPI inflation (September)- China trade (September)- Singapore policy decision and GDP (Q3)By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Josie KaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Jason Lee, Jamie McGeever, Stocks, Josie Kao Organizations: People's Bank of China, REUTERS, PPI, CPI, September's PPI, Reuters, Treasury, China PPI, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, U.S, Singapore, South Korea, India

REUTERS/Jason Reed/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsOct 12 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. But the tone of trading across Asian markets on Thursday may be a little more cautious than some of the headline moves on Wednesday indicate, and may also hinge on the U.S. yield curve. But ugly U.S. producer inflation data at the U.S. open on Wednesday - monthly, annual, headline and core readings were all higher than expected - was a reality check for those betting the Fed is all but done raising rates. But this flipped back again after the latest Fed minutes were released, paving the way for a late flourish on Wall Street and positive close for the three main indexes. The 'pivot' message from Fed officials this week has been pretty strong and consistent, and Governor Christopher Waller on Wednesday was the latest to beat that drum.

Persons: Jason Reed, Jamie McGeever, Christopher Waller, India's, Josie Kao Organizations: U.S . Federal, REUTERS, CPI, U.S, PPI, India's CPI, Bank, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Washington, Malaysia, Asia, Japan, U.S, Europe, India, Marrakech, Morocco

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